From 3c511a03286dc86e3abc023cf56d3c0e93dde329 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Gerardo Marx Date: Fri, 10 Apr 2020 12:28:44 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] Plots 9 Abril-2 --- Readme.md | 18 ++++++++++-------- figuras/Abril9-1.png | Bin 0 -> 8386 bytes figuras/Abril9-2.png | Bin 0 -> 8461 bytes figuras/Abril9-3.png | Bin 0 -> 8139 bytes figuras/Abril9-4.png | Bin 0 -> 7811 bytes figuras/Abril9-5.png | Bin 0 -> 10243 bytes figuras/Abril9-6.png | Bin 0 -> 8639 bytes figuras/Abril9-7.png | Bin 0 -> 7982 bytes figuras/Abril9-8.png | Bin 0 -> 9667 bytes 9 files changed, 10 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) create mode 100644 figuras/Abril9-1.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril9-2.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril9-3.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril9-4.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril9-5.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril9-6.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril9-7.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril9-8.png diff --git a/Readme.md b/Readme.md index 576cf73..c219669 100644 --- a/Readme.md +++ b/Readme.md @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ # Reporte COVID-19 en México y Michoacán ### Dr. Rafael Lara-Hernández, Dr. Héctor Javier Vergara-Hernández, M. C. Gerardo Marx Chávez-Campos ![](figuras/sedeam-logo.jpg) -### 8 de abril del 2020 +### 9 de abril del 2020 --- ## Introducción @@ -11,25 +11,25 @@ El presente reporte muestra la actualización del comportamiento de los casos re El modelo exponencial se ajusta para una tasa diaria de crecimiento de contagio de 0.13 la cual presentó un cambio poco significativo respecto a la tasa del día anterior. A este ritmo se puede estimar un promedio de 4 casos confirmados por hora desde que se inició el registro y de 14 casos confirmados por hora durante la jornada de hoy. En la siguiente figura se pueden observar los registros diarios representados por círculos, mientras que el comportamiento del modelo se pude observar con una línea gris. Note que el modelo sobrestima el comportamiento real en un 1%, aproximadamente, reduciendo su tasa de error en 2% respecto al día anterior. -![](figuras/Abril8-1.png) +![](figuras/Abril9-1.png) ### Modelo polinómico El modelo polinómico elegido para el ajuste es de segundo grado. Este modelo se ajusta al comportamiento actual con un grado de error menor al 1%. La ecuación base del modelo, f(x)=ax^2 +bx +c, tiene un coeficiente de concavidad de 4.83 a diferencia de ayer con 4.49, lo que representa un incremento en la razón de cambio de la curva. Para esta jornada, el modelo subestimó el comportamiento real, presentando un error del 7% alejándose del modelo exponencial en 6%. En la siguiente figura también se puede observar los casos reales con marcas tipo circulo, mientras que el modelo se muestra con la línea punteada gris. -![](figuras/Abril8-2.png) +![](figuras/Abril9-2.png) ### Modelo logarítmico Por su parte el modelo logarítmico, del tipo ln[f(x)]=ax+b, destacando la tendencia del crecimiento en el número de casos confirmados desde el inicio del registro de los datos. Véase la siguiente figura. -![](figuras/Abril8-3.png) +![](figuras/Abril9-3.png) ### Factor de crecimiento de los casos reportados El factor de crecimiento se estima día a día respecto a los casos confirmados. La jornada no presentó incremento respecto al día anterior, para un factor de contagio de 1.14, registrando 346 nuevos casos confirmados para un incremento del 17% respecto al día anterior. -![](figuras/Abril8-4.png) +![](figuras/Abril9-4.png) La tasa de letalidad presentó un ligero descenso, registrando un acumulado de 141 decesos para una tasa de 5.06% a nivel nacional versus la tasa goblal de 5.7%, respecto a los casos confirmados respectivamente, en la jornada de hoy se presentaron 16 nuevos fallecimientos, casi la mitad de los reportados el día anterior. @@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ Adicionalmente se analiza el incremento diario de casos confirmados, recuerdese De los análisis realizados, se puede establecer que las estimaciones estadísticas, realizadas día a día con los diferentes modelos, en este aspecto, vale la pena establecer que las estimaciones han venido siendo consistentes y presentan un menor error, permitiendo estimar el valor esperado de casos que habrán de presentarse. Por lo anterior, la estimación de casos confirmados de COVID-19 para el día 8 de abril le corresponderá un total de 3180 a 3227 casos confirmados para un valor esperado de 3204, significando un incremento estimado de entre 395 y 442, para un valor esperado de 419 nuevos casos. -![](figuras/Abril8-5.png) +![](figuras/Abril9-5.png) Si tomamos en cuenta el número R0=2.5 o Número Reproductivo Básico del Virus estimado para nuestro país, la estimación total de contagios a la fecha sería de 6963 contagios posibles en todo el país, que para esta jornada ajusta a la alza respecto al número de casos sospechosos registrados de 7526, por lo que este indicador R0 podría estimarse en 2.7 aproximadamente. Cabe aclarar que no todos los casos sospechosos se confirman y que la referencia del R0 es utilizada en este análisis solo para estimar el número de posibles contagios existentes en el día en tanto no sean confirmados. @@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ Si tomamos en cuenta el número R0=2.5 o Número Reproductivo Básico del Virus Para el caso de Michoacán, hoy 7 de abril se reportaron 3 nuevo caso, para un total de 39 casos confirmados que representan el 1.40% de casos confirmados del total nacional. El modelo lineal continúa explicando la dinámica de la Pandemia para el Estado y se puede estimar, que por cada día transcurrido, se presentan 1.88 casos confirmados aproximadamente (ver figura 6). -![](figuras/Abril8-6.png) +![](figuras/Abril9-6.png) Para el caso de Michoacán, hoy 7 de abril se reportaron 3 nuevo caso, para un total de 39 casos confirmados que representan el 1.40% de casos confirmados del total nacional. El modelo lineal continúa explicando la dinámica de la Pandemia para el Estado y se puede estimar, que por cada día transcurrido, se presentan 1.88 casos confirmados aproximadamente (ver figura 6). @@ -61,4 +61,6 @@ Respecto a las distribución en el territorio del Estado, el municipio de Moreli Del análisis anterior, se desprende una estimación para el día 8 de abril de entre 42 a 45 casos confirmados en el Estado. -![](figuras/Abril8-7.png) +![](figuras/Abril9-7.png) + +![](figuras/Abril9-8.png) diff --git a/figuras/Abril9-1.png b/figuras/Abril9-1.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..66680ef8829f66c353fdd9c308ba29f749f9ddac GIT binary patch literal 8386 zcmZ{I2UJtRv-eFPh9XV6bP-Uhf&v0U1d$@WN)IZ%N);&yT|tV{dr+zrkzRxZM2ZyY zy@W2IgA~D#7yQ5TzVp3vUd|?&{Y}}qcXwxI_l=I03Khjw3IG78)Knkp0RR{Y03a+G z2@wI)2#*mv;yM}z$^-&|h@eoYi$4qiAPE?N0Bmn#U_e(F@W5e#fZ+y^FbtA#3yzEi z02mS=APESdz&y05Jv-^6MqrcqOXZY8~^J^v$DDqT>*f;$o>uB 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