From 689defc4fc4d24ea1353793a24c7a981818974aa Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Gerardo Marx Date: Tue, 7 Apr 2020 20:43:02 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] Plots 7 Abril --- Readme.md | 16 ++++++++-------- figuras/Abril7-1.png | Bin 0 -> 8376 bytes figuras/Abril7-2.png | Bin 0 -> 8498 bytes figuras/Abril7-3.png | Bin 0 -> 8099 bytes figuras/Abril7-4.png | Bin 0 -> 7794 bytes figuras/Abril7-5.png | Bin 0 -> 9890 bytes figuras/Abril7-6.png | Bin 0 -> 8402 bytes figuras/Abril7-7.png | Bin 0 -> 7944 bytes 8 files changed, 8 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) create mode 100644 figuras/Abril7-1.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril7-2.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril7-3.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril7-4.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril7-5.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril7-6.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril7-7.png diff --git a/Readme.md b/Readme.md index 9481b1a..af003f6 100644 --- a/Readme.md +++ b/Readme.md @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ # Reporte COVID-19 en México y Michoacán ### Dr. Rafael Lara-Hernández, Dr. Héctor Javier Vergara-Hernández, M. C. Gerardo Marx Chávez-Campos ![](figuras/sedeam-logo.jpg) -### 6 de abril del 2020 +### 7 de abril del 2020 --- ## Introducción @@ -11,25 +11,25 @@ El presente reporte muestra la actualización del comportamiento de los casos re El modelo exponencial se ajusta para una tasa diaria de crecimiento de contagio de 0.13. A este ritmo se puede estimar un promedio de 4 casos confirmados por hora desde que se inició el registro y de 12 casos confirmados por hora durante la jornada de hoy. En la siguiente figura se pueden observar los registros diarios representados por círculos, mientras que el comportamiento del modelo se pude observar con una línea gris. Note que el modelo sobrestima el comportamiento real en un 3%, aproximadamente, reduciendo su tasa de error en 1% respecto al día anterior. -![](figuras/Abril6-1.png) +![](figuras/Abril7-1.png) ### Modelo polinómico El modelo polinómico elegido para el ajuste es de segundo grado. Este modelo se ajusta al comportamiento actual con un grado de error menor al 1%. La ecuación base del modelo, f(x)=ax^2 +bx +c, tiene un coeficiente de concavidad de 4.49 a diferencia de ayer con 4.53, lo que representa un decremento en la razón de cambio de la curva. Para esta jornada, el modelo subestimo el comportamiento real, presentando un error del 5% alejándose del modelo exponencial en 2%. En la siguiente figura también se puede observar los casos reales con marcas tipo circulo, mientras que el modelo se muestra con la línea punteada gris. -![](figuras/Abril6-2.png) +![](figuras/Abril7-2.png) ### Modelo logarítmico Por su parte el modelo logarítmico, del tipo ln[f(x)]=ax+b, destacando la tendencia del crecimiento en el número de casos confirmados desde el inicio del registro de los datos. Véase la siguiente figura. -![](figuras/Abril6-3.png) +![](figuras/Abril7-3.png) ### Factor de crecimiento de los casos reportados El factor de crecimiento se estima día a día respecto a los casos confirmados. La jornada presentó un ligero incremento respecto al día anterior, para un factor de contagio de 1.14, registrando 296 nuevos casos confirmados para un incremento del 17% respecto al día anterior y manteniendo una tendencia sostenida los últimos 4 días. -![](figuras/Abril6-4.png) +![](figuras/Abril7-4.png) La tasa de letalidad continúa en ascenso, registrando un acumulado de 125 decesos para una tasa de 5.13% acercándose a la tasa goblal de 5.6%, respecto a los casos confirmados respectivamente, en la jornada de hoy se presentaron 31 nuevos fallecimientos, siendo desafortunandamente casi el doble del día anterior. @@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ Adicionalmente se analiza el incremento diario de casos confirmados, recuerdese De los análisis realizados, se puede establecer que las estimaciones estadísticas, realizadas día a día con los diferentes modelos, presentan un menor error y permiten estimar el valor esperado de casos que habrán de presentarse. Por lo anterior, la estimación de casos confirmados de COVID-19 para el día 7 de abril le corresponderá un total de 2776 a 2862 casos confirmados para un valor esperado de 2819, significando un incremento estimado de entre 337 y 423, para un valor esperado de 380 nuevos casos. -![](figuras/Abril6-5.png) +![](figuras/Abril7-5.png) Si tomamos en cuenta el número R0=2.5 o Número Reproductivo Básico del Virus estimado para nuestro país, la estimación total de contagios a la fecha sería de 6098 contagios posibles en todo el país, que para esta jornada ligeramente se ajusta al número de casos sospechosos registrados de 6295, por lo que este indicador R0 podría estimarse en 2.58 aproximadamente. Cabe aclarar que no todos los casos sospechosos se confirman y que la referencia del R0 es utilizada en este análisis solo para estimar el número de posibles contagios existentes en el día en tanto no sean confirmados. @@ -50,7 +50,7 @@ Si tomamos en cuenta el número R0=2.5 o Número Reproductivo Básico del Virus Para el caso de Michoacán, hoy 6 de abril se reportaron 1 nuevo caso, para un total de 36 casos confirmados que representan el 1.48% de casos confirmados del total nacional. El modelo lineal continúa explicando la dinámica de la Pandemia para el Estado y se puede estimar, que por cada día transcurrido, se presentan 1.83 casos confirmados aproximadamente (ver figura 6). -![](figuras/Abril6-6.png) +![](figuras/Abril7-6.png) El factor de crecimiento diario de casos confirmados con virus COVID-19 presentó un valor de 1.03 el cúal esta por debajo del factor nacional de 1.14 para esta jornada. Este factor alcanzado está por abajo del factor promedio acumulado de 1.17 en Michoacán y por debajo del promedio nacional acumulado de 1.25, ambos factores se han venido manteniendo en los últimos días. @@ -60,4 +60,4 @@ Respecto a las distribución en el territorio del Estado, el municipio de Moreli -![](figuras/Abril6-7.png) +![](figuras/Abril7-7.png) diff --git a/figuras/Abril7-1.png b/figuras/Abril7-1.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..597346976ae08bcee2d233f675d15b061ace243e GIT binary patch literal 8376 zcmZ`;cU)6Vvra-Hp-2&=LqHUeUKB92NEIp4o0K3$q(-FIPy}BP!9o)ekRl);O0NkW z=^dm70YOLrrI(N!e7}3|UtfMFCp$Acv$Jz{cAm}o$3S1}A~gp!006kCeMj90005x@ z03Z%ZLFRzyMJLFFw1KXP28l!>bF#Cu&wsE00GfmakN}&TSOlQE8*uy4A_>b2KqIhd zk|Yux4*($001}!MP8!P>7AC7Aa6@E04h{|(85uo2J!fa<@bK{T^z@2~3M>}e*VnhQ zvO*qWTUt74GpTgy=eFrKjzrp=izHRIeBRt7O#;ZH0UXKq@GJ3G#N*BX((&x|;2$|-Q(Yy@mPM=#=o*iIX?;7dKtfLdGwj2`F_$NRYp*ECc3;*Sl 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