From 833c0bbbad7ea6589e1562aa4431dfdf4a87e924 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Gerardo Marx Date: Sun, 12 Apr 2020 02:07:52 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] Plots Abril 11 --- Readme.md | 14 +++++++------- ...os inicio mexico => datos-inicio-mexico.csv} | 0 figuras/Abril11-1.png | Bin 0 -> 8870 bytes figuras/Abril11-2.png | Bin 0 -> 8962 bytes figuras/Abril11-3.png | Bin 0 -> 8349 bytes figuras/Abril11-4.png | Bin 0 -> 7924 bytes figuras/Abril11-5.png | Bin 0 -> 10686 bytes figuras/Abril11-6.png | Bin 0 -> 8072 bytes figuras/Abril11-7.png | Bin 0 -> 7740 bytes figuras/Abril11-8.png | Bin 0 -> 9658 bytes 10 files changed, 7 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) rename datos/{datos inicio mexico => datos-inicio-mexico.csv} (100%) create mode 100644 figuras/Abril11-1.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril11-2.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril11-3.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril11-4.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril11-5.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril11-6.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril11-7.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril11-8.png diff --git a/Readme.md b/Readme.md index 1770d55..cda75dd 100644 --- a/Readme.md +++ b/Readme.md @@ -12,24 +12,24 @@ El presente reporte muestra la actualización del comportamiento de los casos re El modelo exponencial se ajusta para una tasa diaria de crecimiento de contagio de 0.122 la cual presentó un ligero descenso respecto a la tasa del día anterior. A este ritmo se puede estimar un promedio de 4 casos confirmados por hora desde que se inició el registro y de 15.6 casos confirmados por hora durante la jornada de hoy. En la siguiente figura se pueden observar los registros diarios representados por círculos, mientras que el comportamiento del modelo se pude observar con una línea gris. Este modelo generó una estimación con un error del 6% por arriba del registro actual. -![](figuras/Abril10-1.png) +![](figuras/Abril11-1.png) ### Modelo logarítmico Por su parte el modelo logarítmico, del tipo ln[f(x)]=ax+b, destacando la tendencia del crecimiento en el número de casos confirmados desde el inicio del registro de los datos. Véase la siguiente figura. -![](figuras/Abril10-3.png) +![](figuras/Abril11-3.png) ### Factor de crecimiento de los casos reportados El factor de crecimiento se estima día a día respecto a los casos confirmados. La jornada presentó un decremento respecto al día anterior del 7%, registrando un factor de contagio de 1.10 al registrar 375 nuevos casos confirmados. -![](figuras/Abril10-4.png) +![](figuras/Abril11-4.png) La tasa de letalidad continúa en ascenso, registrando un acumulado de 273 decesos para una tasa de 6.47% a nivel nacional rebasando por primera vez la tasa global de 6.2%, respecto a los casos confirmados respectivamente, en la jornada de hoy se presentaron 40 nuevos fallecimientos, siendo el valor más alto desde que se tiene registro y acumulando los últimos 5 días el 54% del total de defunciones . Al respecto se presenta la gráfica, la cual se ajusta a un modelo tipo exponencial. -![](figuras/Abril10-8.png) +![](figuras/Abril11-8.png) ### Estimación y análisis a partir del modelo exponencial @@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ De los análisis realizados durante los últimos días con los diferentes modelo -![](figuras/Abril10-5.png) +![](figuras/Abril11-5.png) Tomando el cuenta el factor establecido por la Secretaria de Salud para la estimación total de contagios a la fecha sería de 34596 contagios posibles en todo el país, que para esta jornada se puede considerar existen aproximadamente 24600 posibles contagios existentes no identificados. @@ -53,11 +53,11 @@ Respecto a la distribición de la Pandemia en el territorio, la CDMX concentra e Para el caso de Michoacán, hoy 11 de abril se reportaron 8 nuevos casos siendo el valor más alto desde que se tiene registro y acumulando un total de 58 casos confirmados que representan el 1.4% de casos confirmados del total nacional. El modelo lineal continúa explicando la dinámica de la Pandemia para el Estado y se puede estimar, que por cada día transcurrido, se presentan 2.6 casos confirmados aproximadamente (ver figura 6). -![](figuras/Abril10-6.png) +![](figuras/Abril11-6.png) El factor de crecimiento diario de casos confirmados con virus2COVID-19 presentó un valor de 1.16 el cual esta por arriba del factor nacional de 1.10 para esta jornada. Por primera vez este factor rebasó el factor promedio acumulado de 1.15 en Michoacán, aunque se mantiene por debajo del promedio nacional acumulado de 1.23. -![](figuras/Abril10-7.png) +![](figuras/Abril11-7.png) Cabe destacar, que el estado de Michoacán, se encuentra en la posición 7 de los Estados del país con la menor proporción de casos confirmados respecto al total de su población y en la posición número 17 con la menor proporción de contagio respecto al total de casos confirmados. 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