From 8688cf5cf94ba0d2ead3d63e901b1147a81d89a8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Gerardo Marx Date: Fri, 10 Apr 2020 22:46:32 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] Plots 10 Abril --- Readme.md | 16 ++++++++-------- figuras/Abril10-1.png | Bin 0 -> 8562 bytes figuras/Abril10-2.png | Bin 0 -> 8732 bytes figuras/Abril10-3.png | Bin 0 -> 8271 bytes figuras/Abril10-4.png | Bin 0 -> 7899 bytes figuras/Abril10-5.png | Bin 0 -> 10628 bytes figuras/Abril10-6.png | Bin 0 -> 8523 bytes figuras/Abril10-7.png | Bin 0 -> 7662 bytes figuras/Abril10-8.png | Bin 0 -> 9593 bytes 9 files changed, 8 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) create mode 100644 figuras/Abril10-1.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril10-2.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril10-3.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril10-4.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril10-5.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril10-6.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril10-7.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril10-8.png diff --git a/Readme.md b/Readme.md index f489210..a1bdde4 100644 --- a/Readme.md +++ b/Readme.md @@ -12,22 +12,22 @@ El presente reporte muestra la actualización del comportamiento de los casos re El modelo exponencial se ajusta para una tasa diaria de crecimiento de contagio de 0.124 la cual presentó un ligero descenso respecto a la tasa del día anterior. A este ritmo se puede estimar un promedio de 5.16 casos confirmados por hora desde que se inició el registro y de 16.8 casos confirmados por hora durante la jornada de hoy. En la siguiente figura se pueden observar los registros diarios representados por círculos, mientras que el comportamiento del modelo se pude observar con una línea gris. Este modelo generó una estimación con un error del 5% por arriba del registro actual. -![](figuras/Abril9-1.png) +![](figuras/Abril10-1.png) -![](figuras/Abril9-2.png) +![](figuras/Abril10-2.png) ### Modelo logarítmico Por su parte el modelo logarítmico, del tipo ln[f(x)]=ax+b, destacando la tendencia del crecimiento en el número de casos confirmados desde el inicio del registro de los datos. Véase la siguiente figura. -![](figuras/Abril9-3.png) +![](figuras/Abril10-3.png) ### Factor de crecimiento de los casos reportados El factor de crecimiento se estima día a día respecto a los casos confirmados. La jornada presentó un importante incremento respecto al día anterior del 55% retomando el ritmo de crecimiento de los días anteriores, registrando un factor de contagio de 1.12 al registrar 403 nuevos casos confirmados. -![](figuras/Abril9-4.png) +![](figuras/Abril10-4.png) La tasa de letalidad continúa en ascenso, registrando un acumulado de 233 decesos para una tasa de 6.06% a nivel nacional registrando casi la tasa global de 6.1%, respecto a los casos confirmados respectivamente, en la jornada de hoy se presentaron 39 nuevos fallecimientos, casi el doble del día anterior. Al respecto se presenta la gráfica, la cual se ajusta a un modelo tipo exponencial. @@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ Adicionalmente se analiza el incremento diario de casos confirmados, el cual se De los análisis realizados durante los últimos días con los diferentes modelos, los cuales han sido consistentes, presentando un menor error en las estimaciones, por lo que se pueden establecer para el día 11 de abril una estimación de 4294 a 4501 casos confirmados para un valor esperado de 4398, significando un incremento estimado de entre 450 y 657, para un valor esperado de 554 nuevos casos. -![](figuras/Abril9-5.png) +![](figuras/Abril10-5.png) Tomando el cuenta el factor establecido por la Secretaria de Salud para la estimación total de contagios a la fecha sería de 31521 contagios posibles en todo el país, que para esta jornada se puede considerar existen aproximadamente 17400 posibles contagios existentes no identificados. @@ -50,7 +50,7 @@ Respecto a la distribición de la Pandemia en el territorio, la CDMX concentra e ## Estimaciones para el estado de Michoacán Para el caso de Michoacán, hoy 10 de abril se reportaron 3 nuevos casos, para un total de 50 casos confirmados que representan el 1.3% de casos confirmados del total nacional. El modelo lineal continúa explicando la dinámica de la Pandemia para el Estado y se puede estimar, que por cada día transcurrido, se presentan 2.4 casos confirmados aproximadamente (ver figura 6). -![](figuras/Abril9-6.png) +![](figuras/Abril10-6.png) El factor de crecimiento diario de casos confirmados con virus COVID-19 presentó un valor de 1.06 debajo del factor nacional de 1.12 para esta jornada. Este factor alcanzado está por abajo del factor promedio acumulado de 1.15 en Michoacán y por debajo del promedio nacional acumulado de 1.24. @@ -64,6 +64,6 @@ Del análisis anterior, se desprende una estimación para el día 9 de abril de -![](figuras/Abril9-7.png) +![](figuras/Abril10-7.png) -![](figuras/Abril9-8.png) +![](figuras/Abril10-8.png) diff --git a/figuras/Abril10-1.png b/figuras/Abril10-1.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..85bf258d2f2ed99a6111abb8b9d8b0742c45a15b GIT binary patch literal 8562 zcmZ{JcT`hPv~>~^5;{n422epnI!aRvD7^^Mq$3E@J4h!a6h)BUdqt<01}4*-~c;27zCiZ8z61Hh{Lb}kO&MCCt!;F z001D602~q*fE&%fcMtE1zz*U4n3$M^g@sjBRV^(o0|Ek)las5esxTN#Utizy@-jZe zo{&(~PE^_C%AWQf7KhuJL*Z)LKJV<{CII+ofY?fG^*=B&I^k0R0Qy4* zHUZZu;s67~IGR{ofchR1iIWAKAzjuJy!TeZn`>?BLP(B|X0woNxO~74Y9|ixb1rKx zN*$qX%a5c1AZcij2>gXanqrWqIOKKy2wWEaGR0*%;V>8+UJnk_Uz@Rq+smryZ^O0q zV=8=ch%6jiOG^tJ4mU9|Sy)(j^5jWoW@c+^YaBE(1FxCLNkPvQ03h$Uegorq$e95E 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