From 8fbeb7cfb8805452e5c5adec64af44f42fe297dc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Gerardo Marx Date: Tue, 14 Apr 2020 22:59:27 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] plots 14 abril --- Readme.md | 14 +++++++------- figuras/Abril14-1.png | Bin 0 -> 8845 bytes figuras/Abril14-3.png | Bin 0 -> 8469 bytes figuras/Abril14-4.png | Bin 0 -> 7965 bytes figuras/Abril14-5.png | Bin 0 -> 10954 bytes figuras/Abril14-6.png | Bin 0 -> 8154 bytes figuras/Abril14-7.png | Bin 0 -> 7866 bytes figuras/Abril14-8.png | Bin 0 -> 9953 bytes 8 files changed, 7 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) create mode 100644 figuras/Abril14-1.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril14-3.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril14-4.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril14-5.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril14-6.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril14-7.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril14-8.png diff --git a/Readme.md b/Readme.md index 3ee8cb9..2284896 100644 --- a/Readme.md +++ b/Readme.md @@ -12,24 +12,24 @@ El presente reporte muestra la actualización del comportamiento de los casos re El modelo exponencial se ajusta para una tasa diaria de crecimiento de contagio de 0.112 la cual presentó un ligero descenso respecto a la tasa del día anterior. A este ritmo se puede estimar un promedio de 6.42 casos confirmados por hora desde que se inició el registro y de 16 casos confirmados por hora durante la jornada de hoy. En la siguiente figura se pueden observar los registros diarios representados por círculos, mientras que el comportamiento del modelo se pude observar con una línea gris. Este modelo generó una estimación con un error del 6.8% por arriba del registro actual. -![](figuras/Abril13-1.png) +![](figuras/Abril14-1.png) ### Modelo logarítmico Por su parte el modelo logarítmico, del tipo ln[f(x)]=ax+b, destacando la tendencia del crecimiento en el número de casos confirmados desde el inicio del registro de los datos. Véase la siguiente figura. -![](figuras/Abril13-3.png) +![](figuras/Abril14-3.png) ### Factor de crecimiento de los casos reportados El factor de crecimiento se estima día a día respecto a los casos confirmados. La jornada no presentó cambio con respecto al día anterior, registrando un factor de contagio de 1.08 al registrar 385 nuevos casos confirmados. -![](figuras/Abril13-4.png) +![](figuras/Abril14-4.png) La tasa de letalidad continúa en ascenso, registrando un acumulado de 406 decesos para una tasa de 7.52 defunciones por cada 100 casos confirmados a nivel nacional por arriba de la tasa global de 6.3, respecto a los casos confirmados respectivamente, en la jornada de hoy se presentaron 74 nuevos fallecimientos, que desafortunamente representa poco más del doble que el día anterior. Al respecto se presenta la gráfica, la cual se ajusta a un modelo tipo exponencial. -![](figuras/Abril13-8.png) +![](figuras/Abril14-8.png) ### Estimación y análisis a partir del modelo exponencial @@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ Adicionalmente se analiza el incremento diario de casos confirmados, el cual se De los análisis realizados durante los últimos días con los diferentes modelos, los cuales han sido consistentes, presentando un error menor al 1% en el límite inferior del intervalo de estimación, por lo que se pueden establecer para el día 15 de abril una estimación de 5814 a 5909 casos confirmados para un valor esperado de 5862, significando un incremento estimado de entre 415 y 510, para un valor esperado de 463 nuevos casos. -![](figuras/Abril13-5.png) +![](figuras/Abril14-5.png) estimación total de contagios a la fecha sería de 44271 contagios posibles en todo el país, que para esta jornada se puede considerar existen aproximadamente 33480 posibles contagios existentes no identificados. @@ -56,11 +56,11 @@ En la jornada de hoy los estados de Coahuila, Guanajuato, Campeche y Guerrero pr Para el caso de Michoacán, hoy 14 de abril se reportaron 4 nuevos casos, acumulando un total de 72 casos confirmados que representan el 1.33% de casos confirmados y el 1% de los casos nuevos del total nacional respectivamente. El modelo lineal continúa explicando la dinámica de la Pandemia para el Estado aunque comienza a presentar un crecimiento en los últimos 4 días respecto a la línea de regresión, el modelo estima que por cada día transcurrido, se presentan 2.55 casos confirmados aproximadamente (ver figura 6), mientras el valor real promedio es de 2.88 casos confirmados por día desde que se inició el registro y de 1 caso confirmado cada 6 horas para la jornada de hoy. -![](figuras/Abril13-6.png) +![](figuras/Abril14-6.png) El factor de crecimiento diario de casos confirmados con virus COVID-19 presentó un valor de 1.06, menor al factor nacional para esta jornada. Este factor se mantuvo por debajo del factor promedio acumulado de 1.14 en Michoacán y tambien por debajo del promedio nacional acumulado de 1.21. -![](figuras/Abril13-7.png) +![](figuras/Abril14-7.png) Cabe destacar, que el estado de Michoacán, se mantiene en la posición 10 de los Estados del país con la menor proporción de casos confirmados respecto al total de su población y en la posición número 16 con la menor proporción de contagio respecto al total de casos confirmados. 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