From f843bdc6cbb93523b08bd2e428f9507cf1bf2be3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Gerardo Marx Date: Mon, 13 Apr 2020 21:56:03 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] Plots 13 abril --- Readme.md | 16 ++++++++-------- figuras/Abril13-1.png | Bin 0 -> 8773 bytes figuras/Abril13-2.png | Bin 0 -> 8752 bytes figuras/Abril13-3.png | Bin 0 -> 8384 bytes figuras/Abril13-4.png | Bin 0 -> 7968 bytes figuras/Abril13-5.png | Bin 0 -> 10924 bytes figuras/Abril13-6.png | Bin 0 -> 8072 bytes figuras/Abril13-7.png | Bin 0 -> 7830 bytes figuras/Abril13-8.png | Bin 0 -> 9826 bytes 9 files changed, 8 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) create mode 100644 figuras/Abril13-1.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril13-2.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril13-3.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril13-4.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril13-5.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril13-6.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril13-7.png create mode 100644 figuras/Abril13-8.png diff --git a/Readme.md b/Readme.md index d028947..d2b677e 100644 --- a/Readme.md +++ b/Readme.md @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ # Reporte COVID-19 en México y Michoacán ### Dr. Rafael Lara-Hernández, Dr. Héctor Javier Vergara-Hernández, M. C. Gerardo Marx Chávez-Campos ![](figuras/sedeam-logo.jpg) -### 12 de abril del 2020 +### 13 de abril del 2020 --- ## Introducción @@ -12,24 +12,24 @@ El presente reporte muestra la actualización del comportamiento de los casos re El modelo exponencial se ajusta para una tasa diaria de crecimiento de contagio de 0.119 la cual presentó un ligero descenso respecto a la tasa del día anterior. A este ritmo se puede estimar un promedio de 5.6 casos confirmados por hora desde que se inició el registro y de 18.4 casos confirmados por hora durante la jornada de hoy. En la siguiente figura se pueden observar los registros diarios representados por círculos, mientras que el comportamiento del modelo se pude observar con una línea gris. Este modelo generó una estimación con un error del 6% por arriba del registro actual. -![](figuras/Abril12-1.png) +![](figuras/Abril13-1.png) ### Modelo logarítmico Por su parte el modelo logarítmico, del tipo ln[f(x)]=ax+b, destacando la tendencia del crecimiento en el número de casos confirmados desde el inicio del registro de los datos. Véase la siguiente figura. -![](figuras/Abril12-3.png) +![](figuras/Abril13-3.png) ### Factor de crecimiento de los casos reportados El factor de crecimiento se estima día a día respecto a los casos confirmados. La jornada no presentó variación con respecto al día anterior, registrando un factor de contagio de 1.10 al registrar 442 nuevos casos confirmados. -![](figuras/Abril12-4.png) +![](figuras/Abril13-4.png) La tasa de letalidad continúa en ascenso, registrando un acumulado de 296 decesos para una tasa de 6.35% a nivel nacional por arriba de la tasa global de 6.2%, respecto a los casos confirmados respectivamente, en la jornada de hoy se presentaron 23 nuevos fallecimientos, que representó un 57.5% menor al día anterior. Al respecto se presenta la gráfica, la cual se ajusta a un modelo tipo exponencial. -![](figuras/Abril12-8.png) +![](figuras/Abril13-8.png) ### Estimación y análisis a partir del modelo exponencial @@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ Adicionalmente se analiza el incremento diario de casos confirmados, el cual se De los análisis realizados durante los últimos días con los diferentes modelos, los cuales han sido consistentes, presentando un error del 3.6% en las estimaciones, por lo que se pueden establecer para el día 12 de abril una estimación de 5149 a 5476 casos confirmados para un valor esperado de 5312, significando un incremento estimado de entre 488 y 815, para un valor esperado de 651 nuevos casos. -![](figuras/Abril12-5.png) +![](figuras/Abril13-5.png) Tomando en cuenta el factor establecido por la Secretaria de Salud para la estimación total de contagios a la fecha sería de 38220 contagios posibles en todo el país, que para esta jornada se puede considerar existen aproximadamente 29523 posibles contagios existentes no identificados. @@ -56,11 +56,11 @@ En la jornada de hoy los estados de Guerrero, Baja California y CDMX presentaron Para el caso de Michoacán, hoy 12 de abril se reportaron 5 nuevos casos, acumulando un total de 63 casos confirmados que representan el 1.35% de casos confirmados y el 1.13% de los casos nuevos del total nacional respectivamente. El modelo lineal continúa explicando la dinámica de la Pandemia para el Estado, aunque comienza a presentar un crecimiento en los últimos 2 días respecto a la línea de regresión, el modelo estima que por cada día transcurrido, se presentan 2.74 casos confirmados aproximadamente (ver figura 6). En la semana que cierra el crecimiento ha sido significativo ya que en los últimos 7 días el número de casos confirmados representó el 44.44% del total de casos acumulados. -![](figuras/Abril12-6.png) +![](figuras/Abril13-6.png) El factor de crecimiento diario de casos confirmados con virus COVID-19 presentó un valor de 1.09 aproximadamente igual al factor nacional de 1.10 para esta jornada. Este factor se mantuvo por debajo del factor promedio acumulado de 1.14 en Michoacán y también por debajo del promedio nacional acumulado de 1.22. -![](figuras/Abril12-7.png) +![](figuras/Abril13-7.png) Cabe destacar, que el estado de Michoacán se encuentra en la posición 7 de los Estados del país con la menor proporción de casos confirmados respecto al total de su población y en la posición número 16 con la menor proporción de contagio respecto al total de casos confirmados. Con relación al total de fallecimientos, a la fecha se han acumulado un total de 9 defunciones representando el 3.04% del total nacional registrando una tasa de letalidad de 14.3%. diff --git a/figuras/Abril13-1.png b/figuras/Abril13-1.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9ca4e248e65de613e759e90521716902c35c10ee GIT binary patch literal 8773 zcmZ{K1yoyIvvv|BxVu9IcUquWa4GJt#R~+NA^{4t#b3NwaJS+`g0w)36p9up-s0|- zKk%;qyZ5ej?^!1~XJ+p?d-gMDX3x&#y{5V%J`N2I006*OR+7^O06;JR0JwyOhT?z- zxu#Hrh^DHpJQ9gSao}+H{iO>4fFZj8NWk7+7X&ac0FZWEMs_g)V2~~tlFt$r4FEu3 z03-|G&D4Vf`V#lYIb&ZAt50d85#BU^<7+7f?4g>@e z_7bXQ{v7BXEFqD53t`Bn?wY+lPuW?y3z$ zLf}ZI&dyFoMn($@i^au7DJiMk+*||#QBqRU+uK|8xTpa&b8M)RktYB^@a6skOyMM; z1pt@;%5u`Wep$QO;HJV#iimaf@NdLOVI;M~Nl}f@LpKiY8ZyfgFyHAe}6=S}cF$m*!)*d@9y^5;WudqdT2m%1vDT{_enXx|0uJnD1ia%V0Q?8W7RBn zGo`67yKjFhr^Th&ifsIRKk?=?e@$okAd2gmFueo_R=LHd*q_gyi6h^6;Lgx3FuR0^c 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